2010年11月25日小池ゼミ研究演習Ⅱ

●ゼミ卒論発表●

来週から12/2、12/9、12/16に分けて発表

発表者順番

高山、原、高野、土岐、中務、藤本、遊佐、吉田、鳴井、福井、奥内、竹内、岩井

●CNNの米国中間選挙報道●

CNNとは・・・1980年に開局したアメリカ合衆国のケーブルテレビ向けのニュース番組

            3つの報道理念

      CNN. FOX, MSNBの対立

 

【選挙前】

Voters decide pivotal congressional, gubernatorial races Tuesday   Nov 2nd

  • Obama expanded politics without solving the problems
  • What I’m going to work to try to change is the whole government,” a Republican says
  • Republican gain a majority in the House
  • About 100 of 435 house seats were competitive

UK far right group boasts Tea Party links    Nov 2nd

  • Far-right English Defence League says members have links to Tea Party movement
  • Tea Party’s Rabbi Nachum Shifren says many in movement concerned by radical Islam
  • But mainstream Tea Party activists distance movement from extremists
  • British Tea Party is fiscally conservative but strongly rejects links to far-right groups

Letters to the President Nov 2nd

(以下引用)Dear Mr. President,First thing this morning, just as you were waking up, did you think “Well, election day is finally here,” or was it more like, “Hey, it’s Tuesday and I’m the President of the United States!” I’m pretty sure if I were you I’d start every day with that second thought.—— I suppose that’s just another reason why I’d make a lousy president.Anyway, Election Day is at hand and I’m thinking about a line from that old Rudyard Kipling poem, “If.” “If you can meet with triumph and disaster, and treat those two impostors just the same.——-It means “Don’t see your achievements as a measure of your greatness, nor your shortcomings as a measure of your weakness. Both must always be weighed against each other and the totality of your life.”Applying that to the events of today, I think it means that winning a high political office in this land is so fraught with potential missteps, unpredictable landmines, and sheer luck, that only a fool would say he or she truly earned it. ——-So I think the best thing you and your political pals can do on a day like this is hope for the best, and remember come what may, that this one vote on this one day is just that…a measure of your success and failure, but only one.

【選挙後】

Who are the key new Republican leaders?   Nov 3rd

  • House Republican Leader John Boehner is expected to become the new House Speaker
  • Virginia’s Eric Cantor is expected to become the next majority leader
  • Boehner said despite the GOP victory in the House, it’s not time for a victory lap

Letters to the President   Nov 3rd

(以下引用) Dear Mr.President  ——-You and your Democrats learned that the hard way this week. For those members of Congress who danced in to the beat of Obama in 2008, it had to be the shortest two years of their lives; going from hello to goodbye on the same fist bump. ——-They clearly wanted things to change, so you can’t blame them for lack of effort. But voters are interested in results, not passing out gold stars for trying. And the timeline for those results has been shrinking. ——-So what do you do now? Good question. I don’t have all the answers (and quite possibly I don’t have any) but I’ve always thought that revolutionary leaders have short shelf lives. Their revolutions must produce real results quickly. Those results don’t have to be earth-shattering, but they have to be something that people can grab, or their followers will put down their flags, go home for dinner, and the evolution is over.

Midterm elections: What’s happening now  Nov 4th

  • Obama acknowledges his policies haven’t done enough to earn voters’ confidence
  • Christine O’Donnell bitter over GOP establishment’s failure to support her
  • Harry Reid says he’s ready to compromise
  • Tea Party-backed S.C. governor-elect says people found ‘power of their voice’

Letters to the President   Nov 4th

(以下引用)Dear Mr. President,When I was a teenager dabbling in magic, one of the harder things to master was the art of forcing a card. (The art of getting a date was a close second, but that’s for another letter.)The point is to give the impression to your “assistant” that he or she is freely choosing from a fanned deck, when in truth you are subtly guiding a particular card into their fingers. Like most young wizards, I would either be so timid that I would miss the target, or I would so obviously push the intended card that Ray Charles could have seen it coming.Gradually, however, as I grew older, I developed my technique.——- There are a few simple secrets. First, give your “assistant” something real to do. Let him actually shuffle the cards; mix them up as thoroughly as he likes. Then locate your chosen target with a quick riffle and proceed.Second, you have to make it look easy – as if you enuinely could care less which card he pulls from the deck.

●法務大臣辞任について●

「個別のことにはコメントをさし控えさせて頂きます」

「法と証拠に基づいて粛々と仕事をさせて頂きます」

⇒この言葉を国会で使い過ぎ

仙石官房長官

「軍隊は暴力装置」

●北朝鮮発砲戦●

…民間人を巻き込む、日本にも影響を受ける(円安)

ちょっとした誤解で大きな惨事を起こす

韓国は自制している、北朝鮮も被害を縮小できるようにミサイルを選んでいる

Q.金正日が国家としての支持を出して行っているのか?

北朝鮮は閉鎖された国で、詳しい情報が公開されていない

●オバマ米政権の政策●

同盟国の軍事的負担、経済面での負担軽減

オバマが再選を狙う…ねじれ国会の中で戦略を組まなければならない

⇔米国の経済が不安定の中、超党派で協力するためにはオバマが出馬しない方が、政策を固めていくのに動きやすい

 

ヒラリークリントン…国務長官を一度断った、なぜ今就任しているのか?

From “Obama’s war”

ペン氏…「オバマ大統領は再選する際に副大統領を変えなければならない。そのためには女性から支持の多いヒラリーを副大統領候補に持ってくる。2016年にヒラリーが大統領選挙にでればいい」

 

・米国経済の再建

経済再建が最優先…1993年日米首脳会談「市場開放、自動車輸出自粛…」

今は中国の人民元をコントロールして安くするのではなく、自由にしてもらうことを主張

1993年競争力の高いアメリカの製品が売れるであろう

APEC 2010年 途上国が自由貿易化   2010年発展途上国が自由貿易化

TPP…アメリカにとってはTPPを利用して輸出率アップ、経済安定を望んでいる

「アジア貿易自由化」「米自国優先志向」

 

・外交課題

1994年北朝鮮核開発…アメリカは空爆を行おうとした

1995年沖縄日本人少女への暴行、日米同盟の危機→「日米同盟の強化」へ動いた

1996年台湾総統選挙…独立を望んでいる→中国が軍事演習を公に行い威嚇→アメリカは空母を2隻派遣し本気度を表現→中国軍撤退

 

・日本への影響…アメリカはドル安、円高を望む

       同盟国に対する、軍事費負担を望む

 

・パワーシフトの時代

今は大国であるアメリカであるが、G20が行われているように21世紀はインドやブラジルなども勢力を増してくる

“Power diffusion”

Public(民主党) Private(共和党)を求める時代は30年周期

 

●上院、下院中間選挙結果●

上院 民53 共47

下院 民190 共242 未定3

 

*何の問題に重点を置いている?*

経済63% 民43 共54 他3

医療18% 民51 共47 他2

不法移民8% 民58 共40

アフガン7% 民26 共68

 

*この経済を非難されるべき人*

ウォール街 35% 民41%  共57%

ブッシュ  29% 民83%  共15%

オバマ   24% 民6%  共91%

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  • 投稿日時:2010/12/2 17:23

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小池洋次
研究分野のキーワード 政策形成過程論、アメリカ政策研究、メディア論 研究内容 政策に関する諸問題を国際的視点から分析、研究しています。担当教員の経験(日本経済新聞社でのマクロ経済政策=財...

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